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24 Oct 09 Covered Call - Play With House’s Money

Great Gamblers actually have a lot in common with great investors. They know excellent money management is the key to success. Their view is that as long as their money is on the table, it belongs to the game. Their Goal is often to get their own money off the table quickly, so they can play with the house’s money. In the investment world, a Covered call trading strategy is a good way to play with the house’s money. However, there are many different viewpoints. One is that you just find a good stock, and then if it trades options to just sell calls against it until the stock pays for itself. However this is a very limited viewpoint that doesn’t explain what a “good stock” is.

If you are typically a growth and momentum investor, you are generally relying on accelerating earnings and sales growth and price momentum and buying momentum to take over as the stock is bid higher. If you identify a good buy point this will NOT make a good covered call strategy.

The reason is, the premium on the option is generally based on recent volatility, and stocks that set up for a buy point typically consolidate as buyers take profit, sellers try to battle this stock back and buyers and sellers reach a stand still, then buyers gain momentum, and soon right near the buy point the buyers begin to take control. Sometimes the sellers will give-up, and cover their shorts, and the buyers will come in full force. This means that right before the buy point the stock’s premium is fairly low, and it’s not until after the stock breaks out that the price of the premium will be reflected based upon this volatility. In addition, this strategy is generally based on price appreciation. If you sell options on these stocks, you will limit your gain, and you will most likely not increase your potential very much. Generally the best strategy would be to sell out of the money options at your price target. However, generally this will net you a very small amount unless you are buying a lot of shares, and your fees per trade and per contract are very low. Even then, this is just adding a very small premium onto your shares, and usually isnt worth it as much. Instead, you may be better off learning to BUY options if this is your strategy.

On the other hand, If someone is not a momentum trader, and is going to buy stock s perhaps that just received upwards earning guidance, or if they have a strategy where they expect mild price appreciation, or if theyre just index investors, then perhaps a covered call strategy would work well. If you expect a mild price appreciation, you can sell out of the money options, and still gain from price appreciation up to the strike price, while also collecting a premium. Say you Identify a stock that is starting an upward or sideways channel, You are following a trend, you would want to identify the peak of that trend at expiration, and sell a call option near that strike price. This will allow you to adjust price targets, receive the capital appreciation gains, and also collect a premium.

Now generally covered call strategies are better for value investors, or even contrarian investors. You want a stock that you can own for a very long time, but is one that you dont anticipate any short term price appreciation. You can just collect premiums by selling at the money call options, or if you expect the stock to actually decline slightly at the moment, you can sell in the money options, hoping that the stock declines out of the money, and that you dont have to be assigned on your call. This way you can own the call and write another call option month to month, collecting income.

There are other strategies such as just collecting the maximum premiums that are available. This may be a bit dangerous since these are stocks that people expect to make big moves, and those moves arent always up. The price of a call and put are directly correlated, so just because a covered call will yield you a high percentage yield, doesnt mean it is worth it. It is generally associated with higher risks, and most likely, if the stock does go up, it will be a big move, you will be limited in only being able to collect the premium, and you could potentially lose everything if the stock tanks to zero. However, if you do enough research, seeking some of the top yielding covered call options is a good strategy, that can sometimes have you yielding around 10% a month. In addition, you may decide to use this to find stocks that are ready to move, and just buy the stock outright, avoiding additional costs associated with the option (such as the time premium and extra brokerage fees), and still allowing you to profit from the gains. Or perhaps you want to identify the stock and just buy out of the money calls.

Ultimately its up to you to pick a strategy you understand, and learn as much as you can, taking whatever courses you need to and educating yourself so that you are prepared to make money in a way that works for you.

Maclin Vestor teaches about varioustrading systems and teaches you to find a trading system that works for you.

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12 Oct 09 Covered Call Strategies and Option Trading Systems

The cost of a call and the cost of a put are almost directly related. If you have a $40 stock, a $40 call and a $40 put will be almost exactly the same price most of the time. If there is a difference, the possibility of an arbitrage usually exists meaning that there is a 0 risk strategy (minus commissions) to get something for nothing. This is true whether it’s a collar or another strategy. I don’t completely understand the full process that allows for that to happen, but a complex series of trades usually makes it possible. So if the price of a call and put are going to be the same that means generally the higher priced calls are due to greater risk. Some reasons may be historical volatility, as that plays a roll, but the implied volatility, that is, how much people expect or are betting on the stock to move, becomes important.

One covered call strategy is simply to seek the maximum yielding calls to sell. If you decide on this strategy, you probably want to check the recent put volume on this month’s contracts, and you also may want to make sure the company is solvent. It should have positive cash flow more current assets then current liabilities, and ideally increasing cash flow.

Often times biotech stocks will have negative cash flow because they have to spend money researching and eventually they hope to hit a major discovery. These stocks are very difficult to price as a discovery would make the company worth a lot, an approval of F.D.A. will also catapult the stock much higher. You also should look for some recent strength in the stock, and there should be no bearish chart patterns, that means no chart patterns as well as no sudden high volume sell offs recently and generally a stock that has had a sudden sharp drop is also a warning sign.

If you feel comfortable with selling these higher priced options, you want the sudden move that’s expected to be upward if at all. You are in a way betting that a move will not happen. Once you identify a target, I recommend selling slightly deeper in the money calls as this will cover you more in a decline. You will be collecting the theta, which is the cost of an options potential for gains that the option buyer must pay.

However, if you seek the highest yielding covered calls you can sell, head over to optionsbuddy.com. http://optionsbudy.com is a great way to identify the highest yielding stocks. They also have a rating system, which I have not read about, but my guess is that may be based on historical volatility vs. implied volatility where implied volatility is what the investors expect (and what factors into the options price), not what has happen recently; and perhaps it is also based on the yield compared to the risk, the difference between the bid and ask price, the liquidity, and the market cap and other factors. Google for example, would need a lot more people to sell then a micro cap stock for the stock to crash. A stock with high float has a lot of traded shares already, so if suddenly people were to start selling it may not have as huge of an impact on the price.

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05 Sep 09 Exit Strategies In Trading Systems

Many good trading systems use multiple exit strategies. In normal trading system, you need to know when to exit from a gain, and when to exit from a loss. Generally you want to be cutting your profits short, and letting your profits run. At a minimum, you generally want nearly a 3:1 gain to loss. This means you should take profits at 3 times the percentage amount as you cut your losses short. We will use this system and do the following

1) Exit stop at a 7% loss. This stop-loss should sell ALL of your shares. The simple method is to just set the stop and leave it. There are dangers of this because people may be able to see someone make the stop order on the floor, and if they have enough money, they can take advantage of that, selling lots of shares of the stock, pushing the stock price down below the stop, then forcing you and others who may have stops out, and then buying the stock below your price, so the stock will stop out, and then quickly rebound. The more advanced mode is to just watch it, and if it is going to CLOSE below your stop, only then will you exit 10 minutes or so before the markets close. The sophisticated way is to just not use stops, and instead buy puts. this increases the cost of the investment and thus limits your win, but you give up a fixed amount for protection against large losses.. This would insure that the stock doesn’t drop overnight. A failed breakout is signaled if a stock drops 7% below breakout point. If you are buying stocks on the pullbacks, a 7% drop should signify a breaking of support.

2) Set a profit target at 20%. You can use a limit sell order to sell here if you would like, particularly for those who don’t have the time to watch the stock. You should be willing to wait a full 4 months for it to hit it’s target. If it hits the target, you should sell 1/2 to 2/3rds of your shares, and let the rest ride. Also, if your stock hits the price target within 8 weeks (2 months), this signals that your stock is a good one, and you want to hold onto your winners. There is a simple strategy and a sophisticated strategy. The simple strategy is to hold onto your stock until the entire 8 weeks is up. The sophisticated strategy is to sell most or all of your shares, and convert them to an option that you should own at strike price, or very close to it. You should ensure that this transaction is such that in a worst case scenario, you still will have a 5% gain. Generally, you will own say 100shares, sell 100, and buy 1 call contract at the same strike price the stock is at, and secure a profit, while still maintaining the same upside leverage minus the cost of the option and the transaction.

3) Set a trailing stop of 25%. This should serve as a function primarily to exit the remaining 1/3rd to 1/2 of shares that you let ride after you hit your price target of 20%. It is possible that the stock goes up near your target, which will raise this stop to 5% below where you bought it, or if you aren’t using a limit sell, it could spike way up to up 35% from where you buy it, and then quickly come down, and sell out a small portion of your shares for a small gain. This is fine. In this case, either the stock will then proceed to drop below your buy point and go and hit the 7% stop-loss, or it will then bounce and gain until it hits your 20% target. In either case, you will sell the rest of your shares. Of course, if this all happens in a short amount of time, you may attempt a swap as a sophisticated strategy, but generally you should be done with it.

4) You should always keep records. Record how many you bought at what price and which exit(s) were triggered. You want to check all these stocks in a year, or so, and see if you could have made more by adjusting your stops, or adjusting the size of which you sell.

5) Enjoy the profits.

If you are a good system trader, you will make sure that they trading system you use has an excellent exit strategy. At System Trading|Stocks Trading Systems you will learn that an exit strategy will allow you make sure that you have a trading system with greater returns on your average gains than you have losses on your average losses. This is only one small aspect of a trading system but it is a very important one. In fact, your exit strategy will be vital in determining how much capital you allocate when managing your money in a trading system.

In addition, if you can find a stock selection vehicle in combination with a good exit strategy, it will insure that any given investment has a positive expected value. In other words, with a good exit strategy and stock selection that picks winners often enough, you will win more than you lose, provided you manage your money right. Learn these tips as a system trader, and you stand a much better chance at being a profitable trader than someone who does not understand the importance of a good exit strategy within a trading system.

Maclin Vestor teaches about variousstock trading systems and has a course coming soon on finding stock trading system that may work for you.

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