msgbartop
Stock Picks that give you an edge on the Market!
msgbarbottom

24 Oct 09 Covered Call - Play With House’s Money

Great Gamblers actually have a lot in common with great investors. They know excellent money management is the key to success. Their view is that as long as their money is on the table, it belongs to the game. Their Goal is often to get their own money off the table quickly, so they can play with the house’s money. In the investment world, a Covered call trading strategy is a good way to play with the house’s money. However, there are many different viewpoints. One is that you just find a good stock, and then if it trades options to just sell calls against it until the stock pays for itself. However this is a very limited viewpoint that doesn’t explain what a “good stock” is.

If you are typically a growth and momentum investor, you are generally relying on accelerating earnings and sales growth and price momentum and buying momentum to take over as the stock is bid higher. If you identify a good buy point this will NOT make a good covered call strategy.

The reason is, the premium on the option is generally based on recent volatility, and stocks that set up for a buy point typically consolidate as buyers take profit, sellers try to battle this stock back and buyers and sellers reach a stand still, then buyers gain momentum, and soon right near the buy point the buyers begin to take control. Sometimes the sellers will give-up, and cover their shorts, and the buyers will come in full force. This means that right before the buy point the stock’s premium is fairly low, and it’s not until after the stock breaks out that the price of the premium will be reflected based upon this volatility. In addition, this strategy is generally based on price appreciation. If you sell options on these stocks, you will limit your gain, and you will most likely not increase your potential very much. Generally the best strategy would be to sell out of the money options at your price target. However, generally this will net you a very small amount unless you are buying a lot of shares, and your fees per trade and per contract are very low. Even then, this is just adding a very small premium onto your shares, and usually isnt worth it as much. Instead, you may be better off learning to BUY options if this is your strategy.

On the other hand, If someone is not a momentum trader, and is going to buy stock s perhaps that just received upwards earning guidance, or if they have a strategy where they expect mild price appreciation, or if theyre just index investors, then perhaps a covered call strategy would work well. If you expect a mild price appreciation, you can sell out of the money options, and still gain from price appreciation up to the strike price, while also collecting a premium. Say you Identify a stock that is starting an upward or sideways channel, You are following a trend, you would want to identify the peak of that trend at expiration, and sell a call option near that strike price. This will allow you to adjust price targets, receive the capital appreciation gains, and also collect a premium.

Now generally covered call strategies are better for value investors, or even contrarian investors. You want a stock that you can own for a very long time, but is one that you dont anticipate any short term price appreciation. You can just collect premiums by selling at the money call options, or if you expect the stock to actually decline slightly at the moment, you can sell in the money options, hoping that the stock declines out of the money, and that you dont have to be assigned on your call. This way you can own the call and write another call option month to month, collecting income.

There are other strategies such as just collecting the maximum premiums that are available. This may be a bit dangerous since these are stocks that people expect to make big moves, and those moves arent always up. The price of a call and put are directly correlated, so just because a covered call will yield you a high percentage yield, doesnt mean it is worth it. It is generally associated with higher risks, and most likely, if the stock does go up, it will be a big move, you will be limited in only being able to collect the premium, and you could potentially lose everything if the stock tanks to zero. However, if you do enough research, seeking some of the top yielding covered call options is a good strategy, that can sometimes have you yielding around 10% a month. In addition, you may decide to use this to find stocks that are ready to move, and just buy the stock outright, avoiding additional costs associated with the option (such as the time premium and extra brokerage fees), and still allowing you to profit from the gains. Or perhaps you want to identify the stock and just buy out of the money calls.

Ultimately its up to you to pick a strategy you understand, and learn as much as you can, taking whatever courses you need to and educating yourself so that you are prepared to make money in a way that works for you.

Maclin Vestor teaches about varioustrading systems and teaches you to find a trading system that works for you.

Tags: , , , , , , , , , , ,

10 Oct 09 Learn to Trade Stocks the Safe Way, Virtually!

Many people compare the stock market to a casino. Their mentality is that of a poker player. The good news is that , unlike a casino, you as an investor do not enter the stock market with a statistical disadvantage. When you spend money on stocks, you are buying something of value.

Unfortunately, many new investors chose to throw their hard earned money at stocks without really knowing what they are buying. The stock market is a complex arena that can hold the key to your financial independence if you are properly educated. You, as an investor, need to learn how the stock market works so you can make educated decisions.

In a search for additional sources of education I came across a virtual stock market trading website. This site is unique because it allows you to practice trading real stocks without risking real money. It basically gives you the ability to trade like a day trader. You use fake money and trade like the traders on Wall Street. You will learn how to find good stocks and how to trade them successfully.

The website allows you to chat with the other users. This is a fantastic environment for new investors to discover tips and techniques from more experienced traders.

The platform I’m using is called UMOO. It’s an alternative, virtual stock market platform based on real stocks with real stock pricing. The great thing about it is that the user doesn’t need to risk real money but has the opportunity to win.

Traders can pay a fee (buy-in) in order to enter a tournament, or can play for free (great for the novice trader). You will receive virtual money with which to build and cultivate virtual portfolio based on real-time stock market quotes in competitive trading tournaments.

The object of the tournament is to earn the highest return on your portfolio. The winners receive some cash prizes according to their performance, all while learning and perfecting real stock market trading techniques and strategies.

UMOO is for everyone with an interest in the financial markets It provides a safe environment to test investing strategies without risking real money. Since UMOO uses real stocks in real time, the strategies learned can be seamlessly transitioned to your actual portfolio.

About the Author:

Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , ,

01 Oct 09 Makings Of An Options Trading System Part 2

A covered call strategy within a cycle will require people to sell options against the stock. If the stock is above the strike price, the stock will be “called” away. The seller receives the premium, but the owner of the call receives the shares at the strike price. There are various strategies involving this covered call strategy.

Some people prefer to have the covered call eventually pay back the stock owner his investment, so that he or she can reinvest that money, and upon receiving the investment back, the person will let the stock run. If this is the strategy, ideally you want to sell covered calls as the stock falls, as it stays flat, and then you want to have your cash back and let the stock run when it is on its way up again. This can allow you to buy an out of favor stock that is still in it’s decline, but in the second half of the decline, reduce your cost basis to zero, and still own the stock near it’s bottom. In the cycle mentioned earlier, depending on how fast the yield will allow you to recover the price of the stock, You will invest in the stock as early as the beginning of “dogs” and as late as contrarian, and recover your cost as early as contrarian, and as late as the start of estimate revision.

Another covered call strategy would be to buy a neglect, contrarian, or positive earnings surprise stock, sell out of the money covered calls, and continue to do so until the end of the growth stage of the stock, and not only stop selling the calls, but to just sell the stock.

Yet another strategy would be to write a covered call until around 20% can be gained, either through capital appreciation or collecting the option, then to convert the stock into a LEAP call as soon as selling the stock plus the premiums collected can pay for the call. This allows you to have a quicker turnover rate in terms of getting your money out, and playing with the house’s money.

This would be great for anyone who intends on having the stock paid for, and expecting to own the stock option through the entire length of the option or longer if they intend on rolling over the gains by buying another LEAP. It is also a good strategy if the stock’s future becomes less certain, and the investor wants to protect his or her initial investment. Now if someone rolls a stock into a stock option that doesn’t necessarily mean they are done collecting income from covered calls. There is far more to be learned about covered calls, so make sure to do your research before considering if its right for you.

About the Author:

Tags: , , , , , , , , , , ,

09 Sep 09 Money Management - The Focus Of Expert Investors

Many people have been through it all, they’ve lost money and made money in stocks, they’ve lost and made money in poker, and they’ve lost and made money in options, and they’ve even lost money and made money in gold. Ultimately the one thing that can make or break you is Money Management. It is what separates the winners from the losers and the haves from the have-nots. What do people that go through those experiences ultimately learn from?

The fact is that it almost doesn’t matter at all how good the method is, if you cannot manage your money well. In stocks although people who can read financial statements and charts, and understand if a stock is likely to go up, or do back testing on certain method and estimate a probability that stocks using that method went up in the past, it is difficult to pin point the exact odds. That makes managing your money more difficult. However, just because you can’t know the exact probability, doesn’t mean you can’t use past results to estimate a probability range, and manage your money well. Lets just assume for a while that you could know the exact probabilities. If you know that you will win 3 times as much as you lose when you win, and you know that the win will take place half the time, do you know for sure that you will make money in the long run?

This is a trick question, you can never know with certainty that you will make money, but is it probable? Again, that still depends. How can this be? It’s easy to say that if you invest $100, you will turn it into $200 (gaining $100) half the time, and you will lose $33 the other half, that in 100 one hundred dollar investments you can expect to make $5000, lose $1667 and net $3333. However, this fails to take into account how likely you are to be able to afford the $1667 in losses and maintain that $100 investment every time out of 100 times.

In other words, the $3333 net gain is theoretical, and takes absolute no consideration on how likely you are to be able to afford those 100 investments. What if you only had $100 and you bet it all, you have a 50% chance that you lose $33 of that 1000… what then? You can’t simply make another $100 investment, So instead you have to make a $66 investment, now your win will be significantly less. If you lose yet again it will become even more difficult to get back to even. Although on paper this is a good investment, it is not a good investment without proper money management. You may have built a very safe car that drives straight, but if you are a bad driver you still could crash.

Unfortunately many people don’t learn how to drive their financial investment vehicles, and instead rely on money managers, financial advisors, mutual fund owners, and company CEOs to do everything for them. This isn’t a bad thing for those unable or unwilling to learn. However, the risk is not only that these people won’t manage your money well, and not only that if they do, you still may pay them so much in fees and expenses that it’s not profitable, but also that by handing the keys to your investment vehicle over to someone else, you lose control and you fail to learn anything. Although you may accomplish your goals with the help of these people, you also could do this yourself with a good trading system that uses good money management.

Maclin Vestor teaches about financial information and advice. You can even learn about finance, money management, and figuring out finance at his System Trading | Stocks Trading Systems blog.

Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,